Public sentiment surrounding the Israel-Hezbollah conflict is characterized by a profound concern for civilian suffering mixed with frustration towards political leadership on both sides. There's a strong desire for peace, accompanied by empathy for those affected, particularly children in Gaza. Comments reveal deep skepticism regarding media coverage and a lack of faith in the effectiveness of ceasefire agreements, alongside cautious optimism regarding Israel's tactical successes in the conflict.

Israel

Hezbollah

International Leaders

Hopefully someone with more specific knowledge than I chimes in but it has a lot to do with Hezbollah being an extremely sophisticated and well armed, well trained group. They aren't the "sandals and AKs" insurgents of Iraq or Afghanistan; they have high quality training and support from Iran and even Russia (Hezbollah sent forces to be trained by Russians in Syria and get combat experience in that war).

At Wadi Saluki, Hezbollah was well equipped with Sagger and Kornet ATGMs in defensive positions. It was really good defensive terrain being a valley surrounded by high ground that Hezbollah was dug into.

The plan called for Israeli infantry to clear the high ground of threats so armor could move into the valley. They were to have artillery support. What happened was that Israeli infantry was ineffective at clearing the high ground and artillery was hesitant to fire on the enemy because of the risk of friendly fire. The infantry, armor and artillery all lost cohesion with the infantry unable to support the tanks, the tanks not knowing where the infantry was and taking heavy ATGM fire, and the artillery unwilling to fire without knowing the positions of friendly forces.

Hezbollah was well dug in and fanatical in their willingness to fight, and also well equipped and trained. As sophisticated as Hamas has proven themselves to be Hezbollah is so much more sophisticated that in at least one engagement in 2006 IDF thought they'd gotten into a friendly fire exchange with Israeli special forces. 

Hezbollah had also dug tunnels throughout the operational area that enabled them to evade initial sweeps and then reoccupy positions thought cleared.

The response from Israel post-war was to improve interoperability between arms and invest in active protection systems for armor. Their most recent conflict was heavily informed by the 2006 experience with Israel preferring an indirect opening move with the pager affair and specifically targeting Hezbollah missile and rocket caches before they could be employed.

proquo

There is a roughly 80 page report on the Israeli failure that the Americans published at Leavenworth. It’s kind of the only source I have on the issue but here’s a few points worth considering:
1. Politics: Israeli air strikes against Lebanese civilians received global condemnation and pressure.
2. Air power: the IDF thought air power would be more decisive than it was (which we have seen before).
3. Command: ground operations were led by an IAF officer iirc and his orders were a goobledigook of corporate newspeak that lower commands literally did not understand.
4. Hostages: IDF troops captured by Hezbollah limited offensive options and intensity in Lebanon (whereas in 2024 the IDF was able to go all in against Hezbollah). Finally,
5. Poor training: IDF forces were basically occupation troops lacking in field craft and tactical training. They were not able to adapt to complex Hezbollah fortifications and tactics.

In sum, Israel ineffectively bashed against Lebanon and incurred heavy losses for no gains and lots of political losses. However, it does seem obvious that IDF learned from this defeat. If memory is right they lost less men in their border fights and invasion of Lebanon going back to October 8 2023 than they lost in a month in the summer of 2006, while mortally wounding Hezbollah.

Damo_Banks

I don't know if I'd go as far as to consider it a 'failure', as that is a matter dependent upon the political objectives of the conflict, but there are no doubts that things did not go as well as planned and that there were individual failings within the campaign. One big issue was that the Israelis went into the fight underestimating Hesbullah (which itself had changed doctrine since the previous notable conflict in 2000). However, once the Israelis figured out that they were actually a pretty reasonably equipped and motivated force, they became far more circumspect. The last couple of days of the conflict were far more successful for Israel than the initial punch in the face they received in the early days. In fairness, not the first time Israel adapted on the fly.

u/Damo_Banks  proposes five points, all of which are reasonably fair though I would tweak a couple of them.The Leavenworth document he refers to is probably this one. [https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf](https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf)

With respect to item 3, this document is fairly excoriating. [https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA515328.pdf](https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/tr/pdf/ADA515328.pdf)

*"SOD (systemic operational design) theory was greatly influenced by the writings of the French postmodern philosophers, specifically Gilles Deleuze (1925–1995) and Felix Guattari (1930–1992) and, to a lesser extent, Jean-Francois Lyotard (1924–1998), Jean Baudrillard (1929–2007), and Paul Virilio (b. 1932). \[...\] After several alterations and revisions, the new IDF doctrine was endorsed by Air Force lieutenant general and chief of the defense staff Dan Halutz in April 2006. Reportedly, even General Halutz did not understand the new doctrine that he signed.* 

*\[...\]*

*During the Lebanon conflict in July 2006, the major problem the IDF had with SOD was the new terminology and methodology. It was questionable whether the majority of IDF officers could grasp a design that Naveh proclaimed was “not easy to understand . . . because \[it is\] not intended for ordinary mortals.” Many officers found the entire SOD concept elitist. Other officers could not understand why the old system of simple orders and terminology was replaced by one that few could understand. For example, new terms such as strategic directive, strategic purpose, system boundary, operational boundaries, campaign organizing theme, and rival system rationale were overused in place of traditional military terms. Units were ordered to “render the enemy incoherent,” make the enemy feel “distress” or “chased down,” or “achieve standoff domination of the theatre.” The new vocabulary was heavily drawn from French postmodern philosophy, literary theory, architecture, and psychology. Because of its cryptic character, it is hardly surprising that not every officer in the IDF had the time or inclination to study this philosophy"*

This SOD, which comes under "Effects based operations" is what led to the doctrine which emphasised air attacks, which of course weren't as successful as proponents had advertised as per Damo's Item 2.

The_Chieftain_WG

I don't know that this is much of a choice. This is what happens to the Hezbollah arsenal these days:

https://x.com/YehoshuaYosi/status/1941092672237941053

Rearming will cost billions that they don't have. Most of their budget comes from Iran, but Iran has its own problems now. Also, I don't know that Iran is satisfied with the results of keeping a proxy in Lebanon. Money sent to Hezbollah and used to buy rockets will most likely go up in flames by an Israeli airstrike.

Going civil and trying to take over the state seems like the only choice.

unruly_mattress

Man, every Reddit prediction I saw about these conflicts was wrong. 

“Urban warfare against Hamas will result in untenable mass casualties for Israel”

“Hezbollah will rout Israel like 2006”

This place is wishcast central.

ABlackEngineer

If Hezbollah is significantly weakened and Israel succeeds in reaching a border and security agreement with both Lebanon and even Syria, it would mark the first time Israel has secured peace with all its neighbors and eliminated all conventional military threats. It would also leave the Palestinians completely isolated and without leverage.

aWhiteWildLion

So Hezbollah admits defeat to Israel. Great news for the whole region including Lebanon

[deleted]

Hezbollah weighs scaling back it's arsenal after having its ass handed to them by Israel.

wanderingzac

Following a devastating war with Israel, and major continual financial and military pressure, sources suggest Hezbollah might be considering disarming to some unknown degree.

When the cease fire was signed between Israel to Hezbollah and Lebanon, many (Even on this platform) were justifiably skeptical. Is it an Israeli victory, or yet another 1701-case agreement to be ignored by Hezbollah, on the way to the next war?

So far, it seems that the answer has been a resounding Israeli victory. With Hezbollah still being attacked and chased down daily, by both the IDF and somewhat by Lebanon's military forces, without responding back at all. While their economic and arms situation also seems to be deteriorating daily, due to both Assad's defeat in Syria and Iran's struggles after the 12 days war.

NotSoSaneExile

They are “weighing” whether they should scale back their arsenal in much the way I have been weighing whether or not I should marry Adria Arjona.

jrgkgb

#####&amp;#009;

######&amp;#009;

####&amp;#009;

&gt; # [Hezbollah weighs scaling back its arsenal in wake of Israel conflict](https://www.reuters.com/resizer/v2/7NS33AWBFBLL7HPCPVOCATBVVM.jpg?auth=7b6986e5e5a50fc2b4955aa8ad634fe8ef02226fea2a92d159d67ef2672c12ff&amp;height=1005&amp;width=1920&amp;quality=80&amp;smart=true)
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt;   
&gt; * Summary
&gt;   
&gt; * Hezbollah undertakes strategic review, considers giving up more weapons, sources say
&gt; * Israeli strikes, financial squeeze add to pressures on group
&gt; * Keeping part of its arsenal could fuel tensions with Lebanese rivals
&gt; * Hezbollah retains support of key constituents despite war losses
&gt;   
&gt; BEIRUT, July 4 (Reuters) - Hezbollah has begun a major strategic review in the wake of its devastating war with Israel, including considering scaling back its role as an armed movement without disarming completely, three sources familiar with the deliberations say.
&gt;   
&gt; The internal discussions, which aren't yet finalised and haven't previously been reported, reflect the formidable pressures the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group has faced since a truce was reached in late November.
&gt;   
&gt; Sign up  [here.](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/under-pressure-hezbollah-weighs-scaling-back-its-arsenal-2025-07-04/undefined?location=article-paragraph&amp;redirectUrl=%2Fworld%2Fmiddle-east%2Funder-pressure-hezbollah-weighs-scaling-back-its-arsenal-2025-07-04%2F)
&gt;   
&gt; Israeli forces continue to strike areas where the group holds sway, accusing Hezbollah of ceasefire violations, which it denies. It is also grappling with acute financial strains, [U.S. demands](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-drafts-reply-us-demand-hezbollah-disarm-sources-say-2025-07-01/) for its disarmament and diminished political clout since a new cabinet took office in February with U.S. support.
&gt;   
&gt; The group's difficulties have been compounded by seismic shifts in the regional power balance since Israel decimated its command, killed thousands of its fighters and destroyed much of its arsenal last year.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's Syrian ally, Bashar al-Assad, was toppled in December, severing a key arms supply line from Iran. Tehran is now emerging from its own bruising [war with Israel](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/netanyahu-sees-peace-talks-expanding-after-war-with-iran-2025-06-26/), raising doubts over how much aid it can offer, a regional security source and a senior Lebanese official told Reuters.
&gt;   
&gt; Another senior official, who is familiar with Hezbollah's internal deliberations, said the group had been holding clandestine discussions on its next steps. Small committees have been meeting in person or remotely to discuss issues including its leadership structure, political role, social and development work, and weapons, the official said on condition of anonymity.
&gt;   
&gt; The official and two other sources familiar with the discussions indicated Hezbollah has concluded that the arsenal it had amassed to deter Israel from attacking Lebanon had become a liability.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezollah "had an excess of power," the official said. "All that strength turned into a weak point."
&gt;   
&gt; Under the leadership of Hassan Nasrallah, who was [killed last year](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanons-nasrallah-has-led-hezbollah-become-regional-force-2024-09-27/), Hezbollah grew into a regional military player with tens of thousands of fighters, rockets and drones poised to strike Israel. It also provided support to allies in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
&gt;   
&gt; Israel came to regard Hezbollah as a significant threat. When the group opened fire in solidarity with its [Palestinian ally Hamas](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/battling-survive-hamas-faces-defiant-clans-doubts-over-iran-2025-06-27/) at the start of the Gaza war in 2023, Israel responded with airstrikes in Lebanon that escalated into a ground offensive.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah has since relinquished a number of weapons depots in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese armed forces as stipulated in last year's truce, though Israel says it has struck military infrastructure there still linked to the group.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah is now considering turning over some weapons it has elsewhere in the country - notably missiles and drones seen as the biggest threat to Israel - on condition Israel withdraws from the south and halts its attacks, the sources said.
&gt;   
&gt; But the group won't surrender its entire arsenal, the sources said. For example, it intends to keep lighter arms and anti-tank missiles, they said, describing them as a means to resist any future attacks.
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's media office did not respond to questions for this article.
&gt;   
&gt; Isreal's military said it would continue operating along its northern border in accordance with the understandings between Israel and Lebanon, in order eliminate any threat and protect Israeli citizens. The U.S. State Department declined to comment on private diplomatic conversations, referring questions to Lebanon's government. Lebanon's presidency did not respond to questions.
&gt;   
&gt; For Hezbollah to preserve any military capabilities would fall short of Israeli and U.S. ambitions. Under the terms of the ceasefire brokered by the U.S. and France, Lebanon's armed forces were to confiscate "all unauthorized arms", beginning in the area south of the Litani River - the zone closest to Israel.
&gt;   
&gt; Lebanon's government also wants Hezbollah to surrender the rest of its weapons as it works to establish a state monopoly on arms. Failure to do so could stir tensions with the group's Lebanese rivals, which accuse Hezbollah of leveraging its military might to impose its will in state affairs and repeatedly dragging Lebanon into conflicts.
&gt;   
&gt; All sides have said they remain committed to the ceasefire, even as they traded [accusations of violations](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-israeli-strikes-point-precarious-ceasefire-2025-03-18/).
&gt;   
&gt; PART OF HEZBOLLAH'S 'DNA'
&gt; - - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - -- - - - - --
&gt;   
&gt; Arms have been central to Hezbollah's doctrine since it was founded by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to fight Israeli forces who invaded Lebanon in 1982, at the height of the 1975-1990 Lebanese civil war. Tensions over the Shi'ite Muslim group's arsenal sparked another, brief civil conflict in 2008.
&gt;   
&gt; The United States and Israel deem Hezbollah a terrorist group.
&gt;   
&gt; Nicholas Blanford, who wrote a history of Hezbollah, said that in order to reconstitute itself, the group would have to justify its retention of weapons in an increasingly hostile political landscape, while addressing [damaging intelligence breaches](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS/HEZBOLLAH-PAGERS/mopawkkwjpa/) and ensuring its long-term finances.
&gt;   
&gt; "They've faced challenges before, but not this number simultaneously," said Blanford, a fellow with the Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank.
&gt;   
&gt; A European official familiar with intelligence assessments said there was a lot of brainstorming underway within Hezbollah about its future but no clear outcomes. The official described Hezbollah's status as an armed group as part of its DNA, saying it would be difficult for it to become a purely political party.
&gt;   
&gt; Nearly a dozen sources familiar with Hezbollah's thinking said the group wants to keep some arms, not only in case of future threats from Israel, but also because it is worried that Sunni Muslim jihadists in neighbouring Syria might exploit lax security to attack eastern Lebanon, a Shi'ite-majority region.
&gt;   
&gt; Despite the catastrophic results of the latest war with Israel - tens of thousands of people were left homeless and swathes of the south and Beirut's southern suburbs were destroyed - many of Hezbollah's core supporters want it to remain armed.
&gt;   
&gt; Um Hussein, whose son died fighting for Hezbollah, cited the threat still posed by Israel and a history of conflict with Lebanese rivals as reasons to do so.
&gt;   
&gt; "Hezbollah is the backbone of the Shi'ites, even if it is weak now," she said, asking to be identified by a traditional nickname because members of her family still belong to Hezbollah. "We were a weak, poor group. Nobody spoke up for us."
&gt;   
&gt; Hezbollah's immediate priority is tending to the needs of constituents who bore the brunt of the war, the sources familiar with its deliberations said.
&gt;   
&gt; In December, Secretary General Naim Qassem said Hezbollah had paid more than $50 million to affected families with more than $25 million still to hand out. But there are signs that its funds are running short.
&gt;   
&gt; One Beirut resident said he had paid for repairs to his apartment in the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs after it was damaged in the war only to see the entire block destroyed by an Israeli airstrike in June.
&gt;
&gt; ***(continues in next comment)***

empleadoEstatalBot

This, along with the possible ceasefire deal pending its starting to look like total Israeli victory.

fullkaretas

So weird how this was downvoted into oblivion so fast. Hmmmmmmmmmm

....................................................................................................................................................................................

Own_Thing_4364

Makes sense. If they don’t want to keep getting killed and keep getting bombed, generally not being in Israel’s crosshairs as much as they can, they’d want to make themselves less of a threat to Israel. Stop making them mad, they’ll leave you alone.

Minimum-Enthusiasm14

This article sounds more optimistic than I'd be. Israel may be fine, but I have a suspicion that Lebanon is playing with fire here. Hezbollah isn't gonna allow the Lebanese state to dismantle it, and as much as it may feel assertive rn, the Lebanese govt. is extremely weak and its army little more than a police force. Lebanon knows civil war intimately, don't tempt fate for having another one.

BendicantMias

Tactical victories are nice, but strategic victories are far, far more valuable. This ceasefire deal with a stronger Lebanese state and structural weakening of Hezbollah through the secondary effect of Assad's regime falling looks much much more like a strategic victory in the making.

Lovely. A Lebanon that is freed from the shackles of Hezbollah and Iran is better for them and for Israel as well. 

I mean, whatever Lebanon wants to do in terms of their foreign policy, it should be the decision by a government that ultimately answers to the Lebanese population instead of being a decision made by the Supreme Leader of Iran.

zapreon

&gt; Hezbollah is now considering turning over some weapons it has elsewhere in the country - notably missiles and drones seen as the biggest threat to Israel - *on condition Israel withdraws from the south and halts its attacks, the sources said.*

Considering Israel has stated its forces will remain in Lebanese territory until Hezbollah pulls out of Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah says it won’t pull out and disarm until Israel withdraws from Lebanon, it would like we’re looking at another situation like Resolution 1701 where neither side is gonna budge. 

If Israel remains, it’ll probably strengthen Hezbollah’s position, but that’s a more long term consideration as currently Hezbollah isn’t in position to wage a serious war with Israel. Them and Iran screwed the pooch as far as acting as a unified front and now neither are in any position to make demands from Israel.

FerdinandTheGiant

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AutoModerator

Sounds perfect. 
As long as there is proper enforcement.

There's a special place in hell for iof terrorists.

unlearn_relearn

Miserable-Surprise67

For a territory that's a little more than 300 square miles, Gaza seems to have more hospitals than houses.

Happily-Non-Partisan

Indian Chinese russian propaganda is disgusting

xixipinga

Now let’s see if Hamas cares enough about the Palestinians to be willing to return the hostages and disarm

not-enough-char

Best of luck to the IDF. Hamas is getting wrecked.

SlightWerewolf4428

This is Sad . Palestinians should realise that there's no fuking Heaven or hell after death and dying for terrorism cause bring them nothing than deaths. They should adopt modern civilization and humanity and stop killing Jews to bring peace.

Israel has intensified military actions against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, raising concerns about escalating violence and breaches of ceasefire agreements.

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